US Social Security COLA forecast for 2027 rises after fresh inflation data — here’s how much more retirees could get

Following the latest inflation data, expectations are rising for a slightly higher increase in the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said, as reported by CNBC, that the Social Security COLA may increase to 4.2% amid “sharply rising” gasoline, energy and fresh produce prices. This projection is up from the 3.2% COLA estimate for 2027 that Johnson had forecast last month. Report further stated, the nonpartisan advocacy group ‘Senior Citizens League’ has raised its 2027 COLA projection to 3.9%, compared with the 2.8% increase it had estimated in April The forecast is based on April consumer price index (CPI) data released on May 13, which showed inflation climbed 3.8% over the past year — the sharpest rise since May 2023 — driven by stronger-than-expected increases in the cost of several goods and services. As per Motley Fool, assuming middle ground estimate of 3% for the 2027 COLA increase, the average retired worker could receive a monthly Social Security benefit hike of more than $62. In comparison, the average worker with disabilities and the average survivor beneficiary would see their monthly checks each climb by approximately $49 in 2027. The upgraded COLA estimates come as Americans continue to grapple with rising living costs. Prices for essentials such as home heating oil, gasoline, tomatoes, coffee and fresh vegetables have climbed sharply over the past year, Johnson said. According to estimates from the Senior Citizens League, Social Security benefits have lost 13.7% of their purchasing power since 2016. To make up for that decline, benefits would need to rise by 15.7% — equal to about $295.85 more per month for the average recipient. The second wave of May 2026 Social Security payments is scheduled to arrive this week, with millions of beneficiaries set to receive their monthly checks on Wednesday (May 20). According to the Social Security Administration payment calendar, beneficiaries born between the 11th and 20th day of any month are due to receive payments on the third Wednesday of the month. Social Security benefits, which are mainly paid to retired and older Americans, are generally distributed on Wednesdays based on beneficiaries’ birth dates. Recipients born between the 11th and 20th of their birth month are scheduled to receive benefits on Wednesday, (May 20). The payment schedule is divided into three groups: The next payment round is scheduled for Wednesday (May 27) for beneficiaries born between the 21st and 31st. 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